Politics.za

COSATU (well, at least its Secretary-General, Zwelinzima Vavi) has been pretty outspoken about its support for Zuma, and yet Zuma’s proposed second-in-command, current ANC Secretary-General, Kgalema Motlanthe, is not too sure about the future of the tri-partite alliance.

Motlanthe asked candid questions about the relevance of the tripartite alliance in the context of divergent political, ideological and economic values among the stakeholders in the current climate.

Now, should Zuma win, does COSATU believe the rifts in the tri-partite alliance will magically heal? Considering the whole Zuma/Mbeki fight goes all the way back to Operation Vula in the early ‘90s, I’m not so sure.

The Western Cape provincial branch of COSATU is about to withdraw from the nationwide public services strike. I assume this means they have decided to accept the government’s latest salary increase offer.

I think this is a bit of a watershed moment in labour/government relations. Not only is there a split in the ANC/COSATU/SACP tri-partite alliance but it seems there might even be splits amongst COSATU itself, both at a national level (between Willie Madisha and Zwelinzima Vavi) and now on a regional level. It will be interesting to see how other COSATU provincial branches react.

It’s also interesting to note that many people suspected COSATU planned to use the strike in order to influence the upcoming ANC policy committee meeting. Now COSATU are going into the meeting with even less power than before.

June 18: Cosatu: Strikers not getting tired

June 19: It’s time to settle on wages, says Vavi

COSATU have announced they they are now officially discussing who they will be supporting as the next leader of the ANC. This comes with reports that COSATU and the SACP are putting pressure on the ANC to shift it’s policies more to the left.

What still makes me shake my head over this is why if they’re trying to move to the ANC to the left then why COSATU Secretary General Zwelinzima Vavi continue to believe that Zuma is someone who “relates to us”. Zuma is possibly one of the most conservative politicians in the ANC. During his tenure as VP Zuma never uttered a word out of line with Mbeki’s centrist policy (as was to be expected really) but since he got the boot he’s been all over the place depending on his audience.

Put him in front of a COSATU crowd and he’s decrying current government policy on AIDS (no mention of his role as head of the National AIDS Council), put him in front of a church congregation and he’s spouting off oun our nations lack of biblical values (sure to impress those atheists over at the SACP), put him in Steve Hofmeyer’s backyard and he’s humming the tune to ‘De La Rey’ with Leon Schuster.

So is he a canny populist. Yes I’d say so. Is he the saviour of the left? Not a chance. The COSATU Central Executive Committee meeting to discuss who they will back at the ANC NEC elections take place next month. Let’s see if they agree.

The latest reports in the media seem to indicate that COSATU is getting nervous backing Jacob Zuma and may look to be throwing their weight behind someone else who is not Thabo Mbeki. We’ve seen this happen before with COSATU when Zuma was embroiled in his rape trial COSATU were scrambling to find a suitable replacement should he be convicted. When his original corruption trial was struck off the court roll it looked like COSATU (or at least COSATU Secretary General Zwelinzima Vavi) were betting all their chip on Zuma.

However with the NPA making it clear that they fully intend to re-prosecute Zuma on corruption charges and with their being a good chance that the trial will take place during the ANC NEC elections it might be a good idea to look for another candidate to put their weight behind. The name brought up again as a possible COSATU backed candidate is ANC Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe. He was mentioned as a possible Zuma replacement back during the rape trial as well.

Update: Cosatu scorns Sunday Times’s Zuma report

There is no truth in media reports that Congress of South African Trade Unions (Cosatu) leaders have “dropped” their support for Jacob Zuma as a candidate for the African National Congress (ANC) presidency, the union federation said on Sunday.

Chinese Premier Hu Jintao has arrived in South Africa for a two day state visit. I was expecting COSATU to be a bit more vocal about his visit considering that China is responsible for putting countless of it’s members out of a job, over 40 000 in the Western Cape textile industry alone, but I guess for the sake of tri-partite unity they are keeping shtum. One thing Mbeki doesn’t need right now is another uproar hot on the heels of the German corruption investigation and FNB ad pulling fracas.

Despite the continued statements concerning unity in the tripartite, alliance the relationship between the ANC and COSATU/SACP is not getting any better. A weekend meeting between the ANC and it’s alliance members nearly resulted in a walkout of COSATU/SACP delegates after Deputy Finance Minister Jabu Moleketi accused them of “tailism”(?), attempting to turn the ANC into a socialist organisation and not producing enough leaders. He also said their father was an elderberry and their mother wore combat boots. Ok I made up those last two.

I expect as the ANC NEC elections get closer we’ll be seeing even more of these outbursts.

Theres’s a good op-ed piece over at the Mail & Guardian by Ebrahim Harvey a former COSATU unionist which discusses the glaring fact that despite the support that Zuma receives from COSATU , SACP and other left wing factions in the ANC he has demonstrated little evidence that he actually shares little (if any) of their ideals. This echoes previous comments made by SACP MP Jeremy Cronin who has stated he is unsure if Zuma is really ‘their man’. This quote from the piece basically cuts to the heart of the matter:

Cosatu’s unquestioning support, however, deserves scrutiny. The hard and undeniable fact is that Zuma has never offered support to Cosatu on any major policy issue—not on HIV/Aids, the Zimbabwe debacle, macroeconomic policy, the fight against the neoliberal restructuring of the public sector or privatisation. Where was this “friend of the people” during those hard days? Not only was he silent in the often heated clashes between Cosatu and the government, but as the second-most senior leader of the ANC and government, he took major responsibility for those policies and their negative effects, including massive job losses.

We’ve discussed this before because it seems there’s a disconnect here and I have the feeling both sides are trying to take advantage of the other, or perhaps they are both in an understanding of some sort where both parties try to come out on top. COSATU have decided that they want ‘anyone but Mbeki’ in power and have chosen Zuma as their man because he enjoys some popular support and I would hazard to guess they believe he will be easily influenced to carry out their policies. Zuma has implicitly welcomed their support because it will help him get back in office, although it is unclear if he ever intends to return their favours.

Tomorrow sees the start of the COSATU national congress and many are seeing it as being a watershed moment for Zuma with pro-Zuma COSATU Secretary General Zwelinzima Vavi set to butt heads against pro-Mbeki COSATU Chairman Willie Madisha. Most are predicting Vavi to come out on top although there is a good chance both men will be retained despite their relationship being described as nothing short of fundamentally broken.

But can there be a single bigger illustration of the Mbeki presidency than the fact that while COSATU argues and deliberates over whether to support him, he himself will be at the UN General Assembly where South Africa is expected to be elected to the Security Council and while that is important there is a reason we have a Minister of Foreign Affairs.

So instead of Mbeki taking the podium to deliver the main address at the COSATU congress which would have given him a prime opportunity to deliver his views to delegates and persuade them to be more on his side, Jacob Zuma will be giving the keynote address. Zuma will no doubt use the speech to lambast government’s response to the HIV/AIDS pandemic and the centralisation of power (although he was perfectly fine with them while he was in power) and generally rouse up some anti-Mbeki sentiment. I believe this is a wasted opportunity for Mbeki.

Despite me chaving previously called the tripartite alliance a thing of the past it continues to persist despite visible and widening rifts between the ANC, COSATU and SACP. That might be due to the fact (probably well known to all three players) that should SACP/COSATU split, the ANC will still get 60% of the vote.

Now those of you fearing a Zuma lead COSATU/SACP presidency can breathe a bit easier however this highlights a problem trend with the electorate of SA. Despite there being major grievances with the performance of government. people are still reluctant to vote for anyone else, preferring to show their displeasure not via the ballot box but with street protests.

Now this actually suits the ANC. Sure they get some bad press with protestors wailing on about no service delivery, but at the end of the day they are still in power.