DA Could Double Cape Town Lead 6
With all the focus on the past week being on the Zuma/ANC/SACP fracas we’ve neglected local politics. The most interesting story is the Ward 82 municipal by-election in Tafelsig that takes place tomorrow. Tafelsig was won by the ID in the municipal elections in March but after they sided with the ANC in the mayoral vote the ID candidate Sheval Arendse resigned and joined the DA (I assume out of protest) for whom he is now contesting the ward. If the DA win this ward they will double their lead (to a massive two votes) but more importantly this vote will demonstrate whether ID voters will continue to support the ID following their siding with the ANC.
Update: The DA won with nearly 70% of the vote compared to the ID’s 30%. Considering the ANC did not run in order to give more support to the ID this is not a good sign for Patricia De Lille. I wonder if she’ll suddenly veer away from the ANC when it’s clear that the impression the ID is making from siding with the ANC in certain votes is not going down with ID voters.
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To put this byelection in perspective, the press has been blowing this thing out of proportion. One seat will not alter the fact that the DA’s coalition in Cape Town remains fragile. If for instance the UDM decides not to stay in Mayor Helen Zille’s coalition at some point then a DA win in today’s byelection in Tafelsig will become meaningless as the coalition would be short of a majority in council. That said even if the ID wins the ward their pact with the ANC would still be short of a majority as it was initially after the March poll.
One aspect that need mention is the fact that the ANC will not be fielding a candidate but has instead backed the ID’s candidate. I’m not sure how this will play out in the election. In the March 2006 election, the ID received 39%, DA 36.5% and the ANC only 14.5%. If there is no swing in the byelection from March 2006, then the ID may comfortably take the seat with a combined 53.5% of the vote.
But as you mentioned there is the factor that the ID alienated many of it’s supporters by voting with the ANC in council including the vote for former mayor Nomaindia Mfeketo.
I think it’s going to be a deadheat especially given the fact that the ID had halved the DA’s support in the last election compared to the 2000 municipal election where it won about 60% of the vote.
In the DA’s favor is the fact that all of it’s coalition partners except the Universal Party are not contesting because they do no want to split the vote for the DA.
However there is an independent candidate running who could tip the balance either way by attracting disaffected ID voters who might otherwise vote for the DA.
DA Tafelsig candidate investigated for fraud
June 07, 2006, 17:45 The Western Cape department of social services and poverty alleviation has confirmed that they are investigating a case of fraud against a Democratic Alliance (DA) Tafelsig candidate and his wife.
This follows revelations today that Sheval Arendse, a DA candidate, and wife Pamela have been receiving a child support grant despite her husband being employed as a councillor. Arendse is vying for the much contested Tafelsig ward seat, which may tip the balance of power in the Cape Metro.
Henry de Grass, the director of social security and disaster relief, says records reveal that Pamela was in receipt of a child support grant of R190 per month. Arendse’s income was never declared. De Grass says they are now investigating a case of fraud against the couple.
Arendse has conceded that his wife was not entitled to the grant. Arendse says he asked his wife to stop receiving grant. Arendse is now embarking on a damage control in a bid to save his political career as he awaits the outcome of the closely contested by election.
SABC News Not sure if this would affect the outcome. We’ll have to see when the IEC releases the results at 12 AM.
I agree this won’t do that much to strengthen the DA led coalition, however the more interesting outcome is to see whether the ID have lost support in the period between the March local elections and now.
Who do you think will win this by-election?
Boo yah. 69.3% victory for the DA. We walloped the ID, and we did it with nearly the same turnout as at the municipal election itself, so no argument about statistics please.
More than that. Let us suppose that the ANC voters backed the ID. That means the ID vote (29.5%) was about half core ANC voters. In which case, almost NOBODY who originally voted ID in the municipal election backed them again in the by-election.
This is an ID bloodbath. We outvoted them more than two-to-one.
That’s great news that the DA won a landslide in Tafelsig! The ID deserved this one after the xenophobic pamphlets attacking Tony Leon’s religious beliefs.
The ID are rookies anyway.
Patricia’s party is on the way out especially if it continues to support the ANC in the city council.
Also heard this was the highest turnout for a by-election in Cape Town, about 40% voted according to Die Burger.
Lets look to see if the other two ID ward councillors resign and follow the victorious Sheval Arendse’s example.