Go slow
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 14th of July 2005 at 21:56
Entries are going to be quite limited for a few weeks due to some upcoming PC shuffling and assorted technical difficulties. Should be back within a month and a bit.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 14th of July 2005 at 21:56
Entries are going to be quite limited for a few weeks due to some upcoming PC shuffling and assorted technical difficulties. Should be back within a month and a bit.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 11th of July 2005 at 12:01
Brace yourselves. I actually agree with the ANC Youth League on an issue, that being whether Thabo Mbeki should be allowed to be ANC President after his two terms as SA President are up. Granted Mbeki has indicated that he has no intention of doing so, so the ANCYL may be barking up a non-existent tree.
Farrel Lifson on Sunday, 10th of July 2005 at 22:46
In today's Sunday Times there was an article about the Deputy Secretaty General of the ANC stating that delegates to the ANC NGC were uninformed
about the Jacob Zuma situation and that they are unaware of the fact Zuma asked to step down due to his upcoming trial. This seems to me like there might be a bit of re-education
happening soon...
Farrel Lifson on Sunday, 3rd of July 2005 at 19:30
Well the ANC National General Conference has produced some twists and turns and it seems that Jacob Zuma will be retaining his position of power within the ANC. He had initially volunteered to reduce his role in ANC affairs (believing he had little support) but seven of the nine ANC provincial delegations voted to re-instate him.
All of which puts Mbeki under a bit of pressure. This, along with the rejection of certain policy decisions at the NGC, has put the ANC into a position of almost open leadership struggle. At least for now. It will be interesting to see what kind of actions Mbeki will carry out in response to the NGC. Let's not forget that the Zuma supporters are putting their decisions and support out in public while Mbeki performs best and behind closed doors. Zuma should not get too confident as he might wake up and find the support he has now disappear overnight.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 22nd of June 2005 at 21:52
Well the new vice president is Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka who, as it just so happens, is the wife of deposed NPA head Bulelani Ngcuka who was was the one to first state that there was a prima facie case against Jacob Zuma. To quote Star Wars ...the circle is complete...
Now personally I don't think she will be our next president. I think Mbeki has chosen her to be a caretaker, someone who is agreeable to almost everyone and who is there to smooth things over until the choosing of the next ANC leadership. If she does want to be president she has got a bit of work to do considering she was 12th on the list in the last ANC NEC elections and with a new NEC being elected in 2007 she will have to use her new position and stature to get up there into at least the top four to have a chance.
The ANC leadership struggle is far from over.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 20th of June 2005 at 19:04
The NPA have just announced that they will be charging Jacob Zuma with two counts of corruption and he will have to appear in court soon. Now the more conspiratorial minded of you out there might be seeing more of Mbeki's handiwork behind this because if Zuma is found guilty (and with a previous guilty conviction on Shaik the odds are good for one) he will totally be out of the ANC thereby ensuring no public messy succession battles.
Farrel Lifson on Sunday, 19th of June 2005 at 12:14
Still no word on who is to be Thabo's choice for his second in command.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 14th of June 2005 at 14:51
Sun Tzu entered the court of the Emperor and demanded to be given control of the Emperor's army. The Emperor laughed and asked why Sun Tzu should be made general in command of all his men? Sun Tzu stated calmly that such was his skill that he could make an army of the Emperors harem of concubines. Intrigued the Emperor had his concubines assemble in the courtyard. Sun Tzu lined them up and gave the order to march. The concubines giggled and tittered but didn't move. Again Sun Tzu gave the order to march, and in response the giggling and fidgeting of the concubines increased. Calmly Sun Tzu walked over to the concubine closest to him and in one fluid movement cut off her head with his sword. He walked back to his position and once again gave the order to march. The concubines marched. In perfect lockstep and complete silence.
Now how does this little fable relate to Mbeki axing Zuma? Well I don't believe that what Mbeki did ends with Zuma. Mbeki is sending a clear message to the ANC membership. Undermine me, and there will be consequences
. In the past few weeks Mbeki has been under fire from the more leftist factions in the tri-partite alliance. There have been protests over service delivery, provincial ANC membership have defied national directives (witness Ebrahim Rasool being voted out of the ANC chairmanship in the Western Cape) and COSATU and other intra-ANC factions have thrown their support behind Jacob Zuma after he was implicated in a corruption scandal all of which potentially make Mbeki look quite bad and as if he is losing control. Which is probably the best way to piss off an authoritarian such as Mbeki.
Now Mbeki would not do this unless he was sure he could command enough support within the ANC to quell any protests. He is not so stupid as to fire Zuma knowing that doing so would cause an even bigger fight. All those who publicly supported Zuma must have near fainted when he axed him and I would wager quite a bit that they realise they are now in Mbeki's crosshairs and are all trying as quickly as possible to have their turn to prostrate themselves before Mbeki and pledge their undying devotion. If anyone does try and publicly protest Mbeki's decision Mbeki has the finest offence for once - the moral high ground.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 13th of June 2005 at 21:43
Well tomorrow is the day of reckoning for Jacob Zuma . Pres. Mbeki has called a special session of parliament for both houses (I guess to remind us that we do in fact have two houses of parliament) to announce his decision on Zuma's fate.
My prediction? I think Zuma is going to survive for now. He seems to have rustled up enough intra-ANC support that if he is dismissed as VP of the Republic while still retaining his high up position in the ANC he can make life very difficult for Mbeki. However I do think that Mbeki will be working behind the scenes (where he does his best work) to get Zuma's role in the party diminished in the next few years so that someone else will eventually get the number one spot on the ANC electoral list.
Farrel Lifson on Sunday, 12th of June 2005 at 21:09
Whoa! Seems everything wasn't so smoothed out in the Western Cape ANC branch as we thought. First Premier (and at the time ANC Western Cape Chairman) Ebrahim Rasool fends off an attempt by ANC Western Cape Secretary Mcebisi Skwatsha in his attempt to run for Chairmanship of the party in the region. He did so successfully only to get completely side swiped by James Ngculu , an ANC MP. And to add insult to injury, Skwatsha was re-elected as Secretary making Rasool nothing more than your run of the mill on the street ANC member for the moment.
So what does this mean for Rasool? Well for the meantime he is still Premier of the Western Cape and he says he is happy to be just a plain old member of the ANC but you know that he really wanted to carry on as being Chairman as seen by his public squelching of Skwatsha's attempty to run. He's got to be pissed off.And while he is Premier now his position is nowhere near safe.
This might also have an effect on the coloured Cape Flats communities who saw Rasool as their one trump card in the ANC. This coupled with the recent riots over lack of housing and service delivery in the Western Cape might threaten the ANC's position in the province.
Farrel Lifson on Sunday, 5th of June 2005 at 10:14
Headline on the front page of the Sunday Times :
Zuma: Quit or be fired!
Headline on the front page of the Sunday Times web site
Zuma's political Waterloo likely to be slow
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 3rd of June 2005 at 18:12
Now that Schabir Shaik has been found guilty of corruption, the heat is now placed on the unindited co-conspirator
(to borrow a Watergate term seeing it's back in the news) in the matter, none other than our own Deputy President Jacob Zuma . The question is how hot is the actual heat? Without being actually put on trial, he can claim his innocence. And the majority (if not all) of the public calls for him to step down are coming from the opposition who, lets not forget, are a powerless minority in government. Indeed the only people who will have any say in his fate are the ANC , specifically the various factions that do battle within that political behemoth. So what options do they have before the next meeting of the ANC high ups?
The first is to simply ignore the calls. After all Zuma was not on trial was he? It was all simply the act of an overzealous and deluded financial adviser! The ANC could simply dismiss all calls for Zuma's resignation and carry on as per usual and there's not much anyone else could do about it. The allegations of corruption will hang over any future administration but given enough time, serious service delivery and poverty alleviation that will all fade. Zuma will carry on to be president.
The could also publicly dismiss the calls, while privately trying to find a way to sideline Zuma to stop him from being President. This all depends on the various factions in the ANC and the exact size of the support for Zuma within in the ANC. There are those who have their eyes on the presidency and they might use this as an opportunity to leap frog Zuma into the top spot. The ANC did indicate a while ago that they might consider seperating the role of ANC Chairman and ANC presidential candidate. This might allow for them to rebuff all claims for Zuma to resign now, place him as ANC chairman and then before the elections select a different ANC presidential candidate.
So, what will the ANC do? The whole thing has the potential to be very embarassing for the Mbeki administration and if there's one thing Mbeki hates it's being made to look like an idiot. It's all going to be very interesting.
Farrel Lifson on Sunday, 29th of May 2005 at 21:04
I'm getting a very uneasy feeling about the government's use of the NIA to investigate the recent protests against government's lack of delivery around the country that have (unfortunately) turned violent. Specifically I'm wary of the government claiming to be looking for instigators
of violence which echoes the Apartheid government's constant search for the third force
who supposedly were responsible for political violence in the 80's.
Now I'm not condoning violent protest, but I fail to see why the NIA (who tend to not work in public view) should be involved in what would normally be a local policing matter. Also the blaming of the violence by the government on some unseen malicous plot instead of on perhaps the real frustrations felt by township and squatter camp residents who have been promised quite a bit (in return for their vote) with not much to show for it just reeks ever so slightly of a search for a scapegoat.
Farrel Lifson on Saturday, 28th of May 2005 at 13:51
Thank goodness they found out who did this (it was a security dog ), because who knows how many people in KZN were going to die if they didn't get some answers.
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 20th of May 2005 at 11:16
This is why we need more transparent political party funding laws.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 17th of May 2005 at 13:02
As Wayne at Commentary has noted there seems to be some ominous rumbling coming from the ANC's economic planners about modifying the countries labour laws. And Business Day also reports that the ANC is reconsidering it's current approach to BEE as it's placing a drain on the economy.
Now any SA politics watcher knows that for the ANC to admit that not one, but two of it's economic policies aren't turning out so well is a very big change. It's also important to note that of the two changes that might be made in the ANC economic policy, one will piss off COSATU/SACP (relaxing of labour laws) and the other (changing BEE strategy) will make them happy. What's a union to do?
Farrel Lifson on Sunday, 15th of May 2005 at 22:22
The ANC in the Western Cape has been going through a bit of infighting recently with one of the criticism being thrown at both warring parties (Ebrahim Rasool vs Mcebisi Skwatsha) their usage of puff piece advertising to make themselves look good (Skwatsha going so far as to make a TV advertisement apologising for closing taxi ranks in Cape Town I kid you not). So you'd think the astute politician would hang back on the ads for a while. Well never let astuteness stop the Cape Town mayoral executive as they took an almost half page ad in the Sunday Times lining up as if they were in their primary school hockey picture.
Farrel Lifson on Sunday, 15th of May 2005 at 22:12
Okay what's the deal with the executive of the government and shady financial advisers? Is there a clause in the contract when you become President or Vice Pres that says ...and will employ a dodgy financial adviser to mislead me, solicit bribes on my behalf and attempt to take control of my estate on my death...
? I would think that right about now Thabo is getting chief spook Ronnie Kasrils to investigate every insurance rep, stock broker and used car dealer who has ever talked to an ANC official higher local party organiser.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 12th of May 2005 at 12:35
The SA government has been lobbying quite hard for two permanent seats on the UN Security Council for African countries. Obviously they would like one of those seats to go to South Africa but it's good to know that they have decided not to badmouth other African nations who are also lobbying... in public that is.
Farrel Lifson on Sunday, 24th of April 2005 at 23:59
The unity of the ANC is once again being tested in a internal squabble amongst senior ANC members. This time it seems there is a fight brewing between Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang and Finance Minister Trevor Manuel. Manto would like to introduce a compulsory 5% tax on income to try and force people to join medical aid, thereby reducing the burden on state hospitals. Trevor is of course quite pissed because lowering taxes has been a cornerstone of his tenure as Finance Minister. To have Manto come in and wipe out a chunk of goodwill he has earned by juggling the budget successfully, whipping SARS into shape and lowering income taxes year after year is not going to make him happy.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 20th of April 2005 at 22:08
IDASA have lost their attempt in the Cape High Court to get political parties to disclose who donates to their parties and how much they donate. This is a bit disappointing as it makes it much harder to monitor transparency and accountability in the various parties. The ANC was against the attempt and suprisingly so was the DA, who opposed it as it would allow the ANC or government to discriminate against their donors.I hope there is an appeal here and I hope it is successful.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 20th of April 2005 at 21:28
'm glad that Tony Leon believes that not all media appearances are to ones advantage. I'm glad he'd never think of appearing in a fictionalised drama chronicling a local newspaper. I'm glad he'd outright refuse to go on such a show if instead of talking about policy all he was required to do was be the punchline in a subplot where he is confused with Tom Hanks. I'm also relieved to know that if he ever did make such an apperance, which he won't, he'll make sure to go for a quick acting lesson so that he doesn't appear to be a wooden plank wearing a suit.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 19th of April 2005 at 22:36
Sorry for the lack of posts lately but work has been quite busy at the moment. Regular programming will resume in a few days.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 11th of April 2005 at 20:59
Patrice Motsepe clapping along to anti-capitalist songs at the SACP executive meeting.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 7th of April 2005 at 17:21
The SACP will soon be deciding on whether to go it alone (although I highly, highly doubt they will). Mzansi Afrika has more info and commentary.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 7th of April 2005 at 17:07
Or at least I will be. Once Zulu King Goodwill Zwelethini manages to get KZN reclassified a kingdom (with himself as king naturally reigning over everyone both Zulua and non-Zulu) the precedent will be set and I shall ascend the the throne of Milnerton. Except for Montague Gardens... that wasteland shall be cast out of my kingdom.
But seriously. While the ANC has tolerated traditional leaders, going so far as to create a government sanctioned House of Tradtional Leaders, they will never ever give them any real power. To do so would break the centralised power structure that the ANC loves and well we can't have that can we?
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 30th of March 2005 at 21:57
I've gone through a mini SA book reading spree this past month. I recently finished Jonny Steinberg's The Number which is really excellent (for a sneak preview on the book read this report Steinberg wrote for the Centre For The Study of Violence and Reconciliation: Nongoloza's Children ) and I'm really looking forward to William Gumede's Thabo Mbeki And The Battle For The Soul Of The ANC which I'm sure will have some revealing facts and show some strategies the various contenders for the crown might use in the next few years as they vie for top spot.
Farrel Lifson on Saturday, 26th of March 2005 at 10:22
Tony Leon has thrown his hat into the ANC succession debate by stating that he would like Trevor Manuel to be president. He also says that Manuel has no chance because he is not black enough
. Frankly I hope this is not the case (my preference for Manuel as next prez is well documented here), but I can't help feeling uneasily that perhaps Tony might be right. If the La Xhosa Nostra
does exist within the ANC (and I've heard a rumour that the reason Tokyo Sexwale left politics was because of his non-Xhosa ancestry) then neither Manuel or Jacob Zuma (who is Zulu) stand a chance.
Now given that Trevor is still first on the ANC NEC list (although he was fifth on their electoral list) I think he has enough popularity to do it. Tony Leon believes that Manuel's recent ill temper
is an indication that Manuel has realised he will never get the top spot. Or maybe it's because Maria (Ramos, Trev's main squeeze) made him bad coffee that morning.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 24th of March 2005 at 20:31
Let's pretend, for a moment, that the current Shaik shenanigans were never uncovered and it's 2009 with the ANC fresh off another electoral victory and President-Elect Jacob Zuma is busy drawing up lists for his cabinet and other high ranking advisers in the executive. None of us would be suprised if Schabir Shaik was to receive a position quite close to the President (not cabinet level as I don't think Shaik has enough within the ANC proper but definitely in some advisory role), after all they've known each other for years, worked together in MK intelligence and Shaik is now a successful businessman.
Or could it have been that for years Shaik has been Zuma's personal bank, lending him millions of Rands, paying for his house, car and children's school fees. The fact is even without the bribe accusation (an accusation I have to admit that I do not feel will be turned into conviction, while there is evidence I don't think a single poorly worded fax is enough) Zuma has been shown to be in a compromising position where he might have to pay back
a loan in some other way. As Schabir Shaik's father-in-law wrote to him When your friend becomes deputy president -- you will be in the pound seat!
, and what of when he becomes President?
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 21st of March 2005 at 16:44
Do my eyes deceive me? Is a government department (besides SARS ) actually trying to be more efficient ?
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 16th of March 2005 at 21:22
I saw on the evening news that the SACP is deciding whether to go it alone in the next election. I'm sure the ANC will miss those 10 000 votes.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 15th of March 2005 at 14:32
Vice Pres Zuma will be hosting his counterpart from North Korea from tomorrow till Sunday. Supposedly Zuma will brief the NK vice pres on our peace keeping activities in Africa and he will tour some museums, mines and the CSIR. In return the NK vice pres will explain how he keeps his population in a state of virtual slavery, and the expertise needed to continually monitor over a quarter of the population so they don't say bad things about the government or risk being shot.
(I refer you to this thread to see what I think of North Korea)
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 15th of March 2005 at 13:45
Looks like the ANC and Arhbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu are still having a bit of a spat . I do love how the ANC regards getting rid of tokenism (and let's be clear tokenism is not transformation) in sport as a rightwing
position. I guess that Minister of Defence Mosiuoa Lekota is a rightwinger as well ?
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 15th of March 2005 at 07:55
It seems the ANC have decided to split the responsibilities of Chairman of the ANC and being the candidate for State President (ie being number one on it's electoral list). The new Chairman will be elected at the ANC National Executive Committee meeting in 2007 but the presidential candidate will only be elected shortly before the next elections in 2009. This seems like it could be a way for the ANC to maneuver round the Jacob Zuma affair by appointing him chairman, but choosing someone elese to be numero uno on the ANC list. It'll be interesting to see what powers the Chairman will now have? Will he be in charge of the general running of the party and being it's representative (if so the ANC Secretary General is going to be pissed off) or will it be merely a figurehead position.
This looks almost like a shift to American style party politics where the chair of either the Democratic or Republican National Committee is not the actual presidential candidate. I've mentioned before how I thought one day we might see something like party primary elections within the ANC and this makes it seem like it could maybe, just maybe, happen. The various contenders for number on the ANC list will now no longer have to worry about the 2007 NEC elections (although a high up placing will definitely help them). Might we even see some actual debate amongst who gets chosen with criticism from the contenders themselves about the failings of their competitors? It's all (potentially) very exciting!
Note: We should not forget that if Zuma is elected ANC chair he could use the position to keep himself in the number one spot. While in the US the Democratic National Committee chair is not allowed to run for president, he does wield quite a bit of clout on who gets selected. Terry McAuliffe (a member of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council faction within the Democrats) helped Clinton get elected but failed to get Al Gore or John Kerry elected and was booted out in favour of firebrand ex-governor Howard Dean.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 8th of March 2005 at 08:10
In this mornings Cape Times COSATU secretary-general Zwelinzima Vavi said that trying to prevent Zuma becoming president would be like trying to fight against the big wave of a tsunami
, which kinda sounds that COSATU supports Zuma except later on Vavi said that COSATU will support the majority view of the ANC
so if the ANC decided in the coming leadership battle that Zuma is in the top spot, then COSATU will support Zuma. If they choose Trevor Manuel, then COSATU will support Manuel. Hell if the ANC chose me, the next day I can expect a cordial phone call from Vavi pledging his undying loyalty.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 7th of March 2005 at 21:10
Well the guys at Commentary want my R0.02 on the COSATU/ANC threatened break up and subsequent make-up so here goes.
COSATU are, and always will be, the subservient ones in their rocky relationship with the ANC. Firstly they have no where else to go, there is no other political party which has seats to spare for COSATU such as the ANC does. This also means that if the ANC ever lose seats COSATU will still lose out. If the day ever occurs where the ANC gets 51% of the vote they will be less inclined to give seats to COSATU (who might be looking out for COSATU first, ANC second) than loyal ANC party members who don't threaten to split every time they have a disagreement. Secondly, union membership is on the decline and with less members they have less influence. Do you think the ANC really listens to the SACP these days?
However I don't think the ANC/COSATU relationship will always be set in stone. All it will take is some mass crackdown on a COSATU led strike for some reason by the ANC government and I'm sure plenty of nastiness will come to the fore.
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 4th of March 2005 at 22:37
People often see the transition to democracy in South Africa as nothing short of a miracle, and marvel at the lack of violence during that period. But the fact is there was political violence and in KwaZulu-Natal that violence continues today . At least six killings in the past six months. Politicians are scared to hold an inquest because they fear they might have to lay some blame and that could spark even further violence but something needs to be done. Using violence for political goals, especially by formally recognised political entities, is no longer acceptable and the point needs to be made cleary and loudly that it will not be tolerated.
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 4th of March 2005 at 22:32
Well we knew they were already an ANC franchise but the NNP have decided to disband .
As you're reading this, somewhere in George, the Groot Krokodil sits alone, silently weeping.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 2nd of March 2005 at 20:52
Well I thought we were back on the 10th of January and I was proven a bit wrong due to some technical obstructions. Hopefully from now on this page should be updated 3 times a week on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 10th of January 2005 at 17:48
And.... we're back. The big South African political story during my absence was the ANC claiming they will reform the judiciary to be more in line with the collective mindset
of the masses of the country. The ANC is obviously of course in tune with the inner workings of the teeming millions in our fair country so much so that they would never even think of even attempting to re-introduce the death penalty because they know the electorate would never ever vote for it to be brought back so why bother with a referendum.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 21st of December 2004 at 17:15
I will be going on leave/holiday till the 10th of Jan 2005. See you next year!
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 17th of December 2004 at 12:06
Apologies for the downtime recently. It seems sometimes striped RAID arrays just aren't enough. Anyway I need to move this website off of UCT and will do so in the new year. Anyone know any cheap hosting?
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 13th of December 2004 at 16:28
Damn! Minister of Arts and Culture Pallo Jordan is kicking ass and taking names at the National Arts Council. After his 'cabinet exile' he's come back firing on all cylinders. Let's hope more Ministers start taking service delivery to heart.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 7th of December 2004 at 12:14
Did anyone else watch Judge For Yourself last night and think they had somehow been transported back to the mid-80's? Because that's the only reason why I can think that former (Apartheid era) Foreign Minister Pik Botha was on discussing SA government foreign policy. That he was mostly defending the ANC was even more surreal.
Farrel Lifson on Sunday, 5th of December 2004 at 22:06
Over the weekend I attended a talk given by TAC chair Zackie Achmat and it was quite enlightening not only in terms of the work that the TAC is doing, but also in terms of it's many dealings with the government. That Achmat is not a fan of the current government's anti-retroviral rollout program is pretty much well known although Achmat made an interesting comment when I asked him about the ANC's attitude towards HIV/AIDS treatment in the next administration. He said that the ANC has a decent treatment program on paper but it is currently only the reluctance of Thabo Mbeki to take really drastic and pro-active steps in the fight against HIV/AIDS that is really slowing down the rollout of treatments.
He did however seem confident whoever does take over as head of state will have a more positive attitude in the fight against AIDS that is more in line as to what is actually written in the ANC's postion on HIV.
As to who Zackie Achmat thinks might be taking over after Thabo Mbeki? He says watch out for Patrice Motsepe .
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 1st of December 2004 at 18:00
I'm quite excited by the continuing spat between the ANC , COSATU and Archbishop Emeritus Tutu . No, not because I want to see the decline of the ANC's power but rather because it seems to be the first heated political debate in South Africa that has been framed purely in terms of ideological and political differences. Whenever the DA criticises the government, the ANC is always very quick to hint to the racial makeup of those doing the criticising so as to imply they are nothing more than a bunch of whiny conservatives yearning for the apartheid years.
But the ANC can not do so with COSATU and Tutu and have had to resort to attempting to merely brushing off any criticism. Now it would be interesting to find out what the typical ANC voter thinks of the criticism of their party's policies so far. If it comes to light that they agree with the need for there to be more vigorous criticism outside of closed door ANC leadership meetings then I do believe that these public pronouncements could be a weapon used in the upcoming ANC leaderhip fight with those competing for the top spot becoming vocal in their criticism of their opponents policies and failings in office.
Perhaps we will see an ANC version of party primaries? It would be exciting, but with the ANC love of central planning it would take a real shift in the current workings of the ANC to allow senior ANC leaders to openly criticise other ANC leaders.
Farrel Lifson on Sunday, 28th of November 2004 at 13:18
Looks like I was right ! Thabo Mbeki's responses to criticism are getting all to predictable.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 24th of November 2004 at 16:46
Thabo Mbeki is not having a good press week. First Archbishop Emeritus Desmond Tutu called the ANC unthinking, uncritical, kowtowing
in a very public address but then the Grey Lady herself, the New York Times, airs his public spat with journalist Charlene Smith to a much wider global audience.
I can't wait to read Thabo's response in his column this Friday where he calls Tutu a crypto racist who thinks all africans are unthinking witbroodjies
.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 18th of November 2004 at 10:09
Don't you just love it when COSATU tries to be challenge the ANC? It's like watching a battered wife that keeps on going back to an abusive husband. Take the latest Zimbabwe fracas. I can imagine the conversation between COSATU and the ANC went like this:
COSATU: You must do something about Zimbabwe!
ANC: Or what?
COSATU: ...
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 8th of November 2004 at 18:26
We all know the ANC is fond of a strong central government. But it's getting to the point where it's so strong that Western Cape Premier Ebrahim Rasool , who is an ANC member, is complaining that he has little power and perhaps provincial government should be made into a provincial administration
.
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 5th of November 2004 at 16:57
Here in South Africa we value our democracy. Which is why the draft KwaZulu provincial constitution recognises King Goodwill Zwelethini as monarch of the province. I'm looking forward to which Xhosa chieftan gets put in charge of the Eastern Cape. Perhaps King Letsie of Lesotho can lay claim over the Free State?
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 3rd of November 2004 at 11:58
Well it's all but official and it seems that George Bush is in the oval office for another 4 years. And even if Kerry had won I don't think it would have much of a difference for relations between the USA and SA. Despite the ANC probably secretly hoping for a Kerry win, and despite the SA objections to the Iraq invasion, the two governments are pretty cordial with each other and share good relations.
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 29th of October 2004 at 14:46
A while ago we mentioned the story pitting residents in JHB who were erecting boom gates to control access into and out of their suburbs. A lot of people, including the Human Rights Commission, were against it. And yet suprisingly the ANC controlled city council is approving quite a few applications. Maybe it's because the mayor Amos Masondo lives in such a suburb?
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 27th of October 2004 at 12:16
Is anyone as suprised as me at Trevor Manuel and his seemingly rightward shift ever since he took over as Finance Minister? Just yesterday he told the unemployed to get a damn job already. Who does he think he is? Ronald Regan??
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 26th of October 2004 at 09:24
Last night on Judge For Yourself was quite interesting. It seemed quite clear to me that no major political party in South Africa is keen for the re-introduction of the death penalty. While the DA might allow it's members to vote individually in such matters, in the very hypothetical case where they might achieve power, I do not think they would ever re-introduce it if they could.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 18th of October 2004 at 16:40
The one thing I really admire about the UK House of Commons where every week where Tony Blair has to face a half hour of hard hitting questions from opposition MPs. Down south we're a little more laid back and for the first time in eleven months Thabo Mbeki will have to face the music.
If there's one thing I would like to see it's a more lively debate in parliament. Far too often when sessions have been televised do we either see MPs napping (if you're an ANC) or jovially chatting to your chief whip (Tony Leon, I'm looking at you) while parliament is in session.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 12th of October 2004 at 12:06
Usually it's the ANC Youth League who are notorious for making absurd statements, but no longer! COSATU have taken the crown (for the time being until the latest badly worded ANCYL press release).
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 4th of October 2004 at 17:37
If this is true then damn! If I recall correctly Frederick Van Zyl Slabbert who wrote the report, was quite in favour of putting some constitutecy based voting in national and provincial government rather than keeping it almost solely in local government.
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 1st of October 2004 at 16:01
The corruption trial of Schabir Shaik is gearing up to begin soon and the documents released so far are going to make Vice Pres Jacob Zuma very uncomfortable. The prosecution is going to solely focus on Shaik's dealings with Zuma which means that if Shaik is found guilty, it will be because he is guilty of bribing Zuma and therefore Zuma, while not on trial, will implcitly be guilty of taking bribes.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 29th of September 2004 at 17:05
Following after yesterday's post, Pres. Thabo Mbeki has stated that he will not stand for a third term as required by the constitution.
Meanwhile Trevor Manuel is busy practicing in front of the mirror. President Manuel...
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 27th of September 2004 at 12:50
The SA political blogosphere is all abuzz with the rumours of power shake ups at both the ANC and DA . I've spoken about the upcoming leadership struggle in the ANC before (I can very well see it coming down to Trevor Manuel vs. Nkosasa Dlamini-Zuma vs. Jacob Zuma in a steel cage match) but I've never really thought much about who will take over from Tony Leon mainly because while there is a limit on how many terms one can be State President, there is no limit on how long you can be leader of the official opposition and Leon is still relatively young.
So who then are the contenders for the leadership of anklebiter-in-chief? The press was speculating about Helen Zille, but she has stated that she will not be challenging him at the upcoming DA federal congress. But what about Joe Seremane ?
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 23rd of September 2004 at 15:09
One interesting side effect of the last 10 years has been the increased activity of traditionally white labour unions such as Solidarity . In the apartheid days most white unions were little more than extensions of government, filled with broederbond members and other layabouts siphoning off union dues for holidays to Margate.
Now with the state no longer covering their backs, these unions have to actually do some work. Before if a company was going to cut jobs, the white labourers were pretty much content their jobs wouldn't be cut. Today, no such luck.
This was recently highlighted by the public sector strike last week where Solidarity teamed up with COSATU . While I don't think Solidarity shares COSATU's vision of a Marxist utopia, it's a good thing to see that they can put that aside and focus on getting a better deal for their members.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 20th of September 2004 at 17:52
The floor crossing period has come to an end and everyone hates it except the ANC whose ranks swelled. The DA is having second thoughts even though the floor crossing legislation would not be needed if it wasn't for their botched alliance with the NNP.
And for some the aftermath was bloody indeed. It seems that in Natal certain political parties (if this was a politically motivated act) need to learn to control their members actions.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 15th of September 2004 at 14:50
I have another 6 GMail accounts to give away:
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 14th of September 2004 at 12:11
When I think of key partners
needed to help in the rebuilding of Africa, I think of the USA, UK, France and other countries that either have the money to spare (like the US) or were actually involved in mucking up the continent in the first place (UK and France).
Jacob Zuma thinks of Poland
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 7th of September 2004 at 09:02
It can arguably be said that Beyers Naude was one of the greatest South Africans. I would venture to say that he was the bravest. Once a NG Kerk dominee (and member of the broederbond) he was one of the few Afrikaners to stand up and say that apartheid was at it's core an immoral and un-Christian construct. And to do this in the 60's under the political pressure that was permeating every single facet of Afrikaner life required superhuman courage.
Truly one of South Africa's greatest sons and a moral and ethical giant if ever there was one.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 1st of September 2004 at 15:51
The two week floor crossing window has just opened and as expected the flood of NNP politicians streaming over to the ANC is rivalling the great migrations of the Serengeti (or to put a local spin on things, the east coast sardine run). The usefulness of the floor crossing legislation has always been debated amongst us political watchers. It does seem rather out of place considering we do not vote for a person, but rather a political party and that politicians who do cross are seen as betraying the trust voters put in the party they purported to represent. I do love this quote from Cape Town Mayor Nomaindia Mfeketo referring to the 23 NNP councilors who jumped over to the ANC:
There are those who will say this is chequebook politics. We have not promised any chequebooks or positions. They came because they knew it was the right thing to do.
She forgot to add the following: And because they know the NNP is in a death spiral and the odds of them keeping their seats in the next local election are close to zero, and none of them want to give up a cushy job.
Of course floor crossing does have some problems of it's own for instance the swelling of the ANC's ranks might only be temporary until the next local elections. During the floor crossing the councillors take the votes with them, but when an election does happen those votes that would have gone to the NNP might go somewhere else leaving those NNP councillors who did jump (and who are probably at the bottom of the ANC election list) out of a job anyway.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 31st of August 2004 at 16:04
I have 6 GMail accounts to give away. It's first come first serve. Just click any of the links below.
Account #1 Account #2 Account #3 Account #6 Account #4 Account #5
Remember to only use these accounts for good.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 30th of August 2004 at 12:58
Fresh from protesting the Israeli security fence, the SA govt (via the Human Rights Commission ) is turning it's barrier busting eye homewards. Yes that's right the day of reckoning for boom gates is at hand! No longer will the imperialist Sandtonians deny the Hyde Parkians free passage to Sandton City!
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 25th of August 2004 at 12:01
The Scorpions had better have a rock solid case in arresting Mark Thatcher , son of former British PM Margaret Thatcher, or there will be lots of egg on a lot of faces.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 23rd of August 2004 at 12:26
Was at the V&A Waterfront on Saturday afternoon enjoying lunch when Minister of Intelligence Ronnie Kasrils sat down at the table next to me for some sushi (he likes the hand rolls, couldn't tell what the filling was). I was expecting some fireworks or at least some mean stares when the Chairman of the Western Provice Zionist Council walked past but alas it was not to be.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 19th of August 2004 at 17:27
Tony Leon says the NNP has sold out
it's supporters . I wonder if Tony and Helen Suzman are on speaking terms yet?
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 18th of August 2004 at 13:32
The ANC Youth League are claiming that large numbers of whites are joining the ANCYL. They also plan to stamp out careerism
and opportunism
from their ranks. Somehow I don't see large numbers of whites joining for any other reason besides careerism and opportunism. Oh well someone tell Brett Kebble his days being pals with the ANCYL are over!
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 16th of August 2004 at 12:59
Former State President and NNP leader FW De Klerk has quit the NNP after their suicide move
decision to merge with the ANC. Considering that FW wrote a few opinion pieces before the 2004 national election supporting the NNP and their policy of working with the ANC government, his quitting of the NNP should give Marthinus Van Schalkwyk the hint maybe he took that cooperation concept a little too far .
On the radio this morning FW was also pretty tight lipped on what political party he will be supporting in the future. However he said that he hadn't yet chosen one and he was looking at all options from liberal to Christian democrat
. Christian democrat , you say?
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 16th of August 2004 at 12:44
The Coalition for Change between the DA and the IFP is looking like it might not be viable in the future. The question of course is when did it??? From the start it has been nothing but bad publilicity for both parties, especially for the DA who have yet another failed alliance to notch onto their bedpost, with little more than newspaper articles about the arguing that resulted between both parties when they both decided to be official opposition in KZN.
I don't think the dissolution of the alliance will really hurt each party in the long run. The alliance was not going to help revive the IFP. I think Buthelezi needs to change his political direction pretty soon (and if Gatsha is reading everyone in the SA blogospehere has two words for you: AIDS crusader) or risk having the rest of the rural KZN vote cannibalised by the ANC. As for the DA, I don't think they'll mention their ill fated alliances once this one goes down the tubes.
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 13th of August 2004 at 14:31
There was a letter in this morning's Cape Times from Western Cape COSATU leader Tony Erenreich where he wrote in his personal capacity (something he was keen to stress) that he believes that the MP's embroiled in the travel scam must resign. Now of the 26 MP's named, 19 are from the ANC who have refused to publicly release the names of the suspect MPs. If Erenreich wrote that letter in his personal capactity because he would be unable to do so as a leader of COSATU (without the ANC smacking him down officially) then I think he's pretty brave to do so publicly.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 9th of August 2004 at 20:42
Trust the NNP to announce their merger with the ANC during a long weekend when I have minimal access to the Internet. Well what can one say about this development? Just a few posts ago we were wondering whether the NNP would survive past the 2006 local elections and well I think that question has just been answered for us.
Like most other bloggers looking at the SA political scene, I believe there were few altruistic motives for this merger. It seems to be nothing else than Marthinus Van Schalkwyk and the rest of the top NNP politico's making sure they have a job after 2006. Van Schalkwyk claims that the only way for there to be an opposition is within the ANC but I think that's complete rubbish. From now on any statement, press release or document released by the NNP will be subject to higher up approval from the ANC. And yes while there might be various factions within the ANC who butt heads every now and then, the ANC can still put on a united front with the best of them and deny anything took place. So if that's the kind of opposition Van Schalkwyk wants to be - one where he can only bring up objections in closed door ANC meetings while maintaining unity with the ANC everywhere else - then good luck to him. I think now that the NNP is on it's way to dissolution he'll find that what little clout he has with the ANC, which is mainly tied in with the support he brings in the Western Cape, will be quickly reduced. Minister of Environmental Affairs today, tea boy tomorrow.
Oh how the mighty have fallen.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 5th of August 2004 at 13:47
Here's some reassuring news from parliament. ANC MP's are refusing to debate the Children's Bill because they want assurances from the (ANC led) government that it is actually able to implement the laws and regulations laid out in the bill. I guess Pres. Mbeki 's threats of weeding out government civil servants who don't deliver is lighting a fire under a few bottoms on the benches of parliament.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 4th of August 2004 at 12:38
Well the news broke that Al Qaeda (or someone affiliated to them) had their eyes on some targets in SA. I pretty much agree with Commentary and Fodder in that just because the SA government is critical of the US and Israel that it makes us somehow immune to attack.
The Dept of Foreign Affairs haven't exactly inspired confidence in the past in their dealings with terrorists, indeed they seem to buy into the whole If you're South African, you're immune
ethos as witnessed by their idiotic declaration that SA foreign workers in Saudi Arabia wear South African flags to avoid attack. I think it's time they realised that Al Qaeda really don't give a crap that you disagreed with the war in Iraq or you're sympathetic to the Palestinian cause. If you don't subscribe to their extremist, fundamentalist point of view, you're a target.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 3rd of August 2004 at 13:07
For the vast majority of South Africans who don't have english as a first language, the SABC and the various non-english language radio stations it runs (such as Umhobo Wenene , Lesedi FM and Ukhozi FM ) are their primary source of new and information. While there are other radio stations catering to the black market (such as Yfm, Metro) they focus on music and not news.
Now while this is not something to get too concerned about (yet), and because I haven't heard these stations yet (not that I could understand them) I can't comment on their quality, I am a bit worried that if I am a non-English/Afrikaans speaker the only place to get information from is the government.
The same applies to television where once again SABC1/2 is your only source of news if you don't speak English. When we look at newspapers the situation is even worse. I don't think I know of a single non-English/Afrikaans newspaper published in South Africa. The Sowetan doesn't count as it's published in English.
So while we are dutifully proud of our media when they criticise the government or highlight corruption and wastage, I don't think we should be content untill all South Africans have access to indpendent media and information.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 2nd of August 2004 at 17:46
The masses cries have been heard! Inspired by President Mbeki's call for delivery we proudly present to you: RSS ! The struggle (against outdated websites) continues!
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 27th of July 2004 at 09:12
Well so long Bulelani Ngcuka we hardly knew you. So what can the former head of the NPA do now that he's resigned (whether voluntarily no one knows)?
One thing this whole affair has shown is that the ANC is not some massive unified blob. And I expect the cracks and divisions to grow as we move towards 2009 and the first true battle for the presidency emerges.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 21st of July 2004 at 16:59
While the past national elections were quite exciting, let's cast our eyes forward to the upcoming local elections, which are currently scheduled for February/March 2006 . I think they'll be quite important in re-defining the characters of a number of political parties. The IFP in particular will count in a strong showing in KZN to make sure they don't go the way of the NNP .
Speaking of the NNP I would wage the 2006 local elections will be their last. Granted I thought that the 2004 national elections would be their last, the fall out from after that makes their continuation look bleak.
The DA should be able to take control of the Cape Town city council and with that will at least have some ammunition going into the 2009 elections to show that transformation and delivery is not something the ANC has exclusive rights to transformation and delivery.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 15th of July 2004 at 18:27
The Office of the President has added a number of new personnel whose stated aim is to ensure that Thabo Mbeki receives proper audited data from the various governmental departments. I think this is a good move and I hope they are taken seriously and wield some clout in getting various ministers to produce the transformation goods.
And it should be noted of the new appointments there is one that is dedicated to helping Thabo's public image. My suggestion is that he lose that pipe.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 13th of July 2004 at 09:15
The recent revelations about the lovefest between the ANC and the ZANU-PF has caused quite a commotion in the SA political blogosphere. Check out Southern Cross , The Fishbowl and Commentary .
Personally I don't see why this comes as much of a suprise to many. I think we should've known the cosy relationship was happening. Also what kind of election strategists does the ANC have? I mean what do they do? How hard is it to come up with the sit back and wait for people to vote on party loyalty
strategy?
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 9th of July 2004 at 15:31
Supposedly 67% of senior public servants are refusing to disclose any assets and shares they own that might be in conflict with their employment. If anything this is disconcerting. Even more disconcerting is that Minister of Public Services Geraldine Frasier Moloketi believes that ethics officers are the answers to the problems. Somehow I don't think that's going to solve much except introduce even more corruption.
When it comes to government there can be only one way to combat corruption and that is through total transparency. Thabo Mbeki has said that government will be focusing on delivery over the next five years. But that will be hard to do when half the money earmarked for houses disappears into someone's back pocket.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 7th of July 2004 at 12:42
Despite the cricket and rugby authorites claiming that sports quotas have been dropped, ANC Secretary General Kgalema Motlanthe is claiming otherwise. This coupled with Defense Minister Mosioua Lekota previously publicised doubts over affirmative action, seems to indicate that there is some intnernal debate within the ANC over the whole issue. Frankly any debate is good in my eyes. I doubt we'll see the scrapping of AA, but I get the feeling it will be weakened in the future.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 6th of July 2004 at 15:11
The much talked about software upgrade has finally happened! Yes, we've finally moved into 2001 with permalinks ! User comments will be forthcoming in 2007...
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 30th of June 2004 at 16:23
The National Council of Provinces (you know the other house of parliament) is going to move away from legislation and focus on the overseeing of implementation. This is not a suprise what with the ANC's love for tightly controlled central political structures. If they sideline the NCOP any more than they have then any advantage a political party gains by doing particularly well in one or two provinces is diminished.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 30th of June 2004 at 16:15
Buthelezi to IFP leaders: It's your fault we lost the elections!
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 28th of June 2004 at 11:44
I had the opportunity this past weekend of hearing Tony Leon speak live and in person and it was quite enjoyable. It wasn't a full on political speech but rather an informal talk with plenty of anecdotes and mixed in some serious political statements. I didn't have a pen or paper handy so I'm unfortunately not able to give a detailed report but here are a few highlights. Firstly the direction the DA will be heading in the next few years seems to be that of left-wing libertarian. Leon stressed that the state will need to intervene in certain areas (poverty alleviation is one example) but he believes for the most part it should stay out of the way (and he pointed to the current certificate of need legislation for doctors as an example of needless govt intervention). Leon also stated very bluntly that black economic empowerment is not working and stated that of the R65 billion worth of BEE deals done so far R25 billion went to companies controlled by two people ( Tokyo Sexwale and Patrice Motsepe ) who have extremely high up ANC connections. He also said in the current direction it's heading it is becoming more and more of a hindrance to investment in SA and is not helping the poor. A suprising statement was that Leon believed that the SA media is practising self censorship when it comes to reporting about government, and that except for a minority, are not asking the pointed questions they should be. And lastly, Baroness Thatcher has no sense of humour.
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 25th of June 2004 at 12:48
The ANC is shaking things up in parliament. First they appoint a new chief whip and then they give the DA (???) a snazzy parliamentary post . There's also rumours that Thabo Mbeki might have his first meeting with Tony Leon in their official roles as President/Leader of the Opposition pretty soon.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 24th of June 2004 at 11:06
Carrying on from yesterdays entry, there has also been an increased worldwide interest in hydrogen based fuel cells. And one of the metals that can possibly be used as a catalyst in these fuel cells is platinum. Which means that South Africa is sitting on 86% of the new energy source of the world according to Intelligence Minister Ronnie Kasrils and why it is of utmost importance for the South African government to make sure that Southern Africa is as secure and stable as possible.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 23rd of June 2004 at 16:41
Here's something I agree wholeheartedly with the government on: Nuclear energy . Now before all the environmentalists start sending me hate mail, I'd just like to say that compared to the coal stations we currently have producing 95% of our power and belching smog non-stop into the atmosphere, a nuclear power reactor is as clean as solar energy. While in the long term I'd like to see government invest more in renewable energy sources (which by the way they're already doing) it would help for us to minimise the the current impact of our fossil fuel burning ways and that's where nuclear power can come in. And I say this as a person living down the road from Koeberg nuclear power station.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 21st of June 2004 at 17:09
The 2nd Afronaut is on his way to space! Mike Melvill, who is currently piloting SpaceShipOne to the 100km mark, was born and raised in Durban and emigrated inthe 70's with his family. Mark Shuttleworth was treated as a national hero by the SA governemnt. Will Mike get the same acclaim?
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 21st of June 2004 at 16:45
How can Thabo Mbeki be said to be micro-managing ? Don't you have to actually be in the country for that?
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 17th of June 2004 at 17:15
Will Zimbabwe 's purchase of Chinese fighter jets do anything to sour the relationship between the SA and Zim governments? SA expressly asked China to not sell arms to sub-Saharan Africa.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 15th of June 2004 at 16:01
Health Minister Manto Tshabalala-Msimang doing something constructive about HIV/AIDS? Did the temperature in Hell just drop?
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 11th of June 2004 at 10:30
The M&G has a good overview of the whole Ngcuka/Zuma/Shaik and now Mushwana affair for anyone who forgot how the whole thing started...
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 10th of June 2004 at 10:02
Thabo Mbeki wants all his cabinet ministers and director generals to submit reports every two months stating whether they are meeting delivery targets. Hopefully this will get some ministries who should be high up on the delivery list but who aren't performing (*cough*Stella Sigcau*cough*) into gear.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 7th of June 2004 at 10:52
Fodder has a good post on the NNP as it fades away . I have to a agree, come September and the opening of the floor crossing window they'll get heavily hit and again in two years time when local elections occur.
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 4th of June 2004 at 13:09
South Africa Government Online has a new look. Nice and simple, although they are still testing it so it might change in the future.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 3rd of June 2004 at 13:04
Thabo Mbeki and Jacob Zuma will be out the country over the next few days and who is being made acting president? Why none other than Minister of Mineral Affairs Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka who just so happens to be the wife of embattled Director of the National Prosecuting Authority Bulelani Ngcuka . Perhaps she'll use some of her new found executive powers and issue a presidential pardon for her battered husband!
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 2nd of June 2004 at 12:54
The ANC high ups are trying to get everyone involved in the latest Ngcuka / Zuma / Maduna / Mushwana flare up to shut the hell up .
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 2nd of June 2004 at 12:52
Whoa! Defence Minister Mosiuoa Lekota thinks that government affirmative action policy might be needing a rethink : I have to open this debate. How long can we go on with this thing?
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 2nd of June 2004 at 10:08
Big update on the list of SA blogs on the right. And I still haven't managed to look at all of the blogs hosted on MWeb but I will soon.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 1st of June 2004 at 14:36
Someone in the Dept. of Foreign Affairs is smoking a whole lotta crack . If they really think that wearing a t-shirt with the SA flag will stop a crazed fundamentalist terrorist from putting a bullet in you then I've got a bridge to sell them. I hate to be the one to tell them that it's not just Westerners who are being targetted. It's anybody who isn't a Muslim who happens to be in Saudi Arabia, which those nutty Al Qaeda fanatics want to make into an infidel free zo ne. I guess denial is not just a river in Egypt eh?
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 1st of June 2004 at 12:44
Thabo Mbeki has said that government is going to crack down on civil servants who don't start pulling their weight when it comes to delivery of services. If that's the case he might want to pick up the latest issue of Noseweek , which has a number of articles detailing some ANC politicians who have been taking the poor of Hout Bay for a multi million Rand ride.
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 28th of May 2004 at 16:53
Raise your hand if you thought the Bulelani Ngcuka / Jacob Zuma affair was over? Well you thought wrong . Seems that Ngcuka did this when he claimed there was a prima facie case of corruption against Zuma but that he would not prosecute (which brings up the question of whether Zuma violated Ngcuka's rights when he accused him of being a Nat Spy). I guess this explains why Ngcuka left the NPA despite having three years on his contract.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 27th of May 2004 at 13:19
Why in the hell would Al-Qaeda try and disrupt the SA general elections held last month? If they were trying to reduce the ANC majority by scaring the voters to vote for another party (ala Spain) then the obvious is why? The ANC led government has been particularly opposed to the US invasion of Iraq and is not exactly the biggest ally of Israel either (witness the chilling of relations between Pretoria and Jerusalem over the past few years). If AQ were trying to increase the ANC majority then really, they are truly idiots because even without bombs going off at polling stations the ANC was easily heading for a 2/3 majority. But of course there is a third option and that is not to help or hinder the ANC but to disrupt the very process of Democracy (with a capital D) in Africa, something that is the opposite of the theocracy lovin' AQ. It is good to see that the arrests in SA led to further arrests in Syria and the UK and that even though the ANC led government might not agree with the invasion of Iraq, they do understand the threat of fundamentalist driven terrorism.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 25th of May 2004 at 12:59
King Goodwill Zwelethini is looking for official recognition by the KwaZulu legislature. I don't think the ANC has fully addressed the issue of traditional leaders yet, mainly because they have a bit of a disdain for them. Despite that there are vast numbers of South Africans who feel the need for traditional leaders, mainly in the rural areas.
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 21st of May 2004 at 12:45
Thabo Mbeki 's State of the Nation address is available online .
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 21st of May 2004 at 12:44
Talk about having your cake and eating it too. The IFP is currently in a coalition with the ANC in Kwazulu, but still want to have the status of official opposition . Yeah... don't think that's going to work. The DA have received a ruling stating that they are the official opposition int he KZN legislature, which now the IFP is getting all pissy about. The coalition for change - solid as a rock!
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 19th of May 2004 at 12:11
The NNP used to be able to rely on the Free State to be a major contribution of support. Judging by their performance in the elections (around 8000 votes out of 1000000 cast) no more . And the NNP leadership in the Free State have called for the NNP to disband. I don't think Marthinus will do that as it would be the ultimate admission of defeat but it's got to hurt to have the leaders in your party so demoralised. But Kortbroek is doing his best though. With the limited potential NNP MP's have nowadays, Van Schalkwyk is busy staffing the Ministry of Environmental Affairs and Tourism with all the NNP players who couldn't get into parliament.
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 14th of May 2004 at 11:11
Trevor Manuel was made acting president while Thabo Mbeki is at FIFA lobbying for the World Cup and Jacob Zuma is in Tanzania. Now that Trevor's had a taste, we'll see if this affects the upcoming political battle for #1 on the ANC electoral list...
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 10th of May 2004 at 09:42
The first story we ever wrote about on this blog, the parliamentary travel fraud affair, is going to finally be investigated , almost a year after the story broke.
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 10th of May 2004 at 09:39
The elections are still not over for some. the ACDP and AZAPO are set to go to court over who will be given an extra set in parliament after AZAPO mistakenly received 2666 extra votes from the IEC (their only election accounting snafu we hope).
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 10th of May 2004 at 09:33
You just know that Tony Leon and Patricia De Lille are going to be going ape over this : Opposition dismay as ANC takes over control of Scopa (for you foreigners SCOPA is the Standing Committee on Public Accounts, the SA equivalent to the US Congress' General Accounting Office). While this does seem to make parliament less transparent, all hope is not lost. There are a number of NGO's who monitor parliament, such as IDASA , and the opposition parties should start strengthening their relationship with them.
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 7th of May 2004 at 10:59
It seems Bulelani Ngcuka is leaving his position as National Director Position of Public Prosecutions (it seems voluntarily although his contract runs till 2008) and the lead contender to replace him is Ngoako Ramatlhodi , former premier of Limpopo Province, who himself is currently being investigated by the National Prosecuting Authority for corruption allegations. No conflict of interest there.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 6th of May 2004 at 13:56
Well with the IFP back in bed with the ANC the political scene is quite quiet at the moment. So I guess it's time for a little political speculation. With the success of the ANC at at the polls this past election day coupled with the fact that the DA has pretty much sown up the opposition vote (except for the ID ), where does Tony Leon steer the DA in order to increase their share of the vote in 5 years time. There are a number of options but all of them have a lot of risk. Firstly he can hope that in the next 5 years that some of poor who form the bulk of the ANC's votes finally get fed up and decide to vote for someone else. That's a risky move, seeing how well the ANC did at the polls in the last election, and not pro-active in any sense. He could decide to make the DA more left wing and go after the ANC's base but I don't think people's memories are short enough to believe that (witness the ass kicking the NNP received). He can't go any further to the right as the ANC would rip him to shreds and he'd lose the liberal vote to the ID. So has the DA been painted into a corner?
Farrel Lifson on Monday, 3rd of May 2004 at 14:58
Many have characterised the past ten years of ANC rule as being focused on transformation, with their coming reign being focused on delivery. And it seems that does seem to be the case with Thabo Mbeki telling public servants that their performance will be coming under scrutiny. I'm pretty glad about this as the last thing South Africa needs now is a lagging, unresponsive beauracracy but we'll have to see if Mbeki can walk the walk as well as he can talk the talk.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 29th of April 2004 at 15:55
It's been just over a day and already there's a cabinet shuffle . It seems the two IFP deputy ministers appointed yesterday, Musa Zondi and Vincent Ngema , refused to attend the cabinet swearing in until the conclusion of discussions between the ANC and IFP. Thabo Mbeki basically says tough tekkie and has decided to appoint two new candidates for the posts. I guess with the IFP's fizzled performance at the polls and with KZN in ANC hands without the IFP's help, Thabo can afford to play hardball.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 28th of April 2004 at 15:27
The cabinet list has been released and the list has some suprises. Firstly Mongesuthu Butelezi is out which is strange considering that the IFP withdrew their court case recently, which I thought was indicative of some kind of deal being reached. Obviously not, so expect politics in KZN to start hotting up (in a hopefully non-violent manner) as that is the only real playground the IFP can throw some weight around. NNP leader Marthinus Van Schalkwyk is Minister of Environmental Affairs and Tourism, and is being nicely rewarded for the NNP helping the ANC keep the Western Cape and for giving up the Premiership to Ebrahim Rasool . Many thought he would only receive a deputy post but Thabo Mbeki knows how to keep the troops happy. One helluva weird appointment though is AZAPO leader Mosibudi Mangena to Minister of Science and Technology. I don't know what AZAPO have done for the ANC lately, they didn't exactly help the ANC in the past election nor were they in any coalition with the ANC such as the SACP and COSATU. I guess it's just Thabo Mbeki helping a socialist brother out.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 22nd of April 2004 at 18:15
One ANC politician who I'm sad to see get the axe is Frene Ginwala . She always brought a dignified air to parliament (if that's possible) and was extremely even handed in her handling of both ANC and opposition MP's. Her replacement Baleka Mbete has big shoes to fill.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 21st of April 2004 at 09:50
Well it seems that Tony Leon is going to get burned again (as the old saying goes 'fool me once...') by a coalition partner. This reversal happened in almost record time though, so I guess Mongesuthu Buthelezi was fond of his cabinet post.
Farrel Lifson on Tuesday, 20th of April 2004 at 09:01
So much for the proposed IFP / ANC coalition in KZN. This court case is going to get quite ugly in my opinion with accusations and counter-accusations flying thick and fast. The Premiers of all the provinces are supposed to be announced this coming Monday, and I don't think the Premier of KZN will be an IFP member after this. There's also some talk that Vice President Jacob Zuma will be made KZN Premier. That's quite interesting in that it potentially shifts Zuma out of the picture for presidency in 5 years time.
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 16th of April 2004 at 15:40
How long will the ANC govern South Africa? From their increase in support in the elections you could guess the answer is for a very long time. But no political party can rule for so long with little change and remain in power indefinitely. It took Zimbabwe 20 years before the MDC sprang up to take almost half the votes in their elections. I don't think that figure of 20 years is insignificant. Nearly half of the population of South Africa is younger than 18, and in 10 years time a significant proportion of those between the ages of 18-23 will have been born into a democratic South Africa ruled solely by the ANC. When they go to the polls in 2014 will they vote according to alleigance to the ANC for their role in the struggle or will they decide that the poverty they've continued to live in for the past 20 years is due to the governance of the ANC?
Farrel Lifson on Friday, 16th of April 2004 at 15:30
Commentary has a nice graph of the rise and fall of the various opposition parties over the last ten years. While the DA has had increasing support every election the magnitude of the increase has decreased as time goes on. While the DA has been able to sew up the minority vote, it is clear they still haven't been able to appeal to the poor black vote which constitutes the majority of voters in SA. While Tony Leon might be pleased with his party's performance I think he needs to realise that for the DA to appeal to this segment of voters they can not continue to run the 'opposition for democracy's sake' that Leon likes to use. Rather than pointing out how bad a job the ANC is doing, Leon will need to focus on how good a job the DA does. This, however, is going to be extremely tough with the DA not holding on to power anywhere and so they don't have much to point to as examples of their efforts in poverty alleviation etc etc.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 15th of April 2004 at 21:41
Wayne over at Commentary does a bit of pondering over the ANC 's great election performance. He notes that because the ANC is so large it contains within itself sub-parties which often don't have similar views (compare the neo-Capitalists of Sexwale, Manuel(maybe) and Rhamaposa with the old timer Socialists in the SACP and COSATU) and perhaps in the future one of these sub-parties might decide to break away taking a substantial chunk of votes. This, coupled with the war of succession for top spot in the ANC now that Thabo Mbeki is in his final term, means that there will be plenty of maneuvering within the ANC over the next 5 years. Interesting times await indeed.
Farrel Lifson on Thursday, 15th of April 2004 at 11:57
Only about 30% of the votes have been tallied so far. You can catch up to the minute results on the IEC Website . Official results are expected tomorrow. Just a few quick oberservations: The DA shot up to 18% of the national vote but are slowly sliding down as more rural stations send in their results. For the same reason I would expect the IFP to increase a bit more. The NNP looks to be finished as a party with national importance, however there has been some speculation that NNP leader Marthinus Van Schalkwyk will be offered a cabinet post (perhaps Home Affairs which will be vacated by IFP leader Mongesuthu Buthelezi ) in exchange for him giving up the premiership of the Western Cape to Ebrahim Rasool . We'll see how hardball Kortbroek can play. The ID are doing better than expected and is polling better than the NNP. My theorised 'black conservatives' seems to not have emerged this time around with the ACDP holding pretty much steady.
Farrel Lifson on Wednesday, 14th of April 2004 at 22:35
Well I did my civic duty this morning and voted in the 3rd national and provincial elections. Everything went ultra smooth and kudos must be given to the IEC who seem to have everything under control around the country. Only minor problems (that every political party is trying to make into a major problem) so far. The polls closed a while ago and counting has begun with the final tallies expected to be finalised by 6am tomorrow morning.
Farrel Lifson on